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Samo plays 400nl live!
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Samo plays 400nl live!
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1191 Posts
Samo at 400nl Live (2)
7 Posts
Re: Samo at 400nl Live (2)
7 Posts
Re: Samo at 400nl Live (2)
1191 Posts
Re: Samo at 400nl Live (2)
7 Posts
Re: Samo at 400nl Live (2)
30 Posts
Re: Samo at 400nl Live (2)
30 Posts
Re: Samo at 400nl Live (2)
1191 Posts
Re: Samo at 400nl Live (2)
@Isensir, while he can have some combo draws and such and the occasional A-T, you have to remember that we are playing against a range. Given that he opened UTG, he is going to have more value hands than draws here, especially considering that this is not a spot where he would expect us to fold on the turn. Also keep in mind that his draws will sometimes get there - and he will also sometimes barrel the river if he misses. There will be enough nut value hands in his three barrelling range that we won't be able to profitably call a third barrel on the river, but that sets us up to fold against the missed draws also. Basically the bottom line is that even though we are ahead some not unreasonable percentage of the time, we are not doing well against his range equity wise, which is why I think its a fairly easy fold.
1191 Posts
Re: Re: Samo at 400nl Live (2)
@gosubay, I think we are doing very poorly equity wise against his range. First of all, I'm not sure why you rule out second pair for him in his betting range (in a blind vs blind situation, I think we will see a cbet with second pair quite often as a form of merging). But more importantly, I think that the general mistake that you might be making is to think about how likely our hand is to be the best hand at the moment of the flop bet - rather than to think about how well our hand is going to play equity wise. Note that we can't really pick up any draw on the turn (one spade on the turn would make it a lot better and possibly tilt it towards a call), so we will always have to fold to a second barrel. So he's going to win with hands that were ahead on the flop, but he'll also win with all of the weaker hands as long as he fires another bullet. As such, our hand is really weak from an equity standpoint, and therefore should just be folded right away in my opinion.
30 Posts
Re: Samo at 400nl Live (2)
7 Posts
Re: Samo at 400nl Live (2)
3 Posts
Re: Samo at 400nl Live (2)