Niman's Live Leveling (2)

what was river bet size

As interesting and as well analyzed this hand was, i think that can not make up for the fact that this was only 1 hand in 2 hours. I would have MUCH preferred you to make a concept video, for example 'playing 3 bet pots oop', 'how to counter small 4 bets' etc. or the usual game review type video. Nevertheless, was nice to hear the thoughts from the other players as well.

Thanks for the feedback guys. I'd like to emphasize that this will not be my "normal" style of video. I wanted to make an in-depth video of this very interesting hand, because it explores the concept of leveling in an instructional way (especially with Dan and Orson being kind enough to agree to give their thoughts). But most of my videos will be member reviews, hand history videos, concept videos, and hopefully in the not-too-distant future, playing videos.

aaachu, this is a very good question. I think that the problem here is that if Orson chooses to put in another raise, the value of Orson being right is nowhere near the cost of him being wrong. Additionally, an important factor here is that the 9s (along with the other two suited nines) was probably the most active card in the deck on the turn. Since Orson is out of position, it could be profitable for Dan (or I) to call the raise with a draw. The problem for Orson is that there are so many legitamate draws out there - so if any draw hits, he will be in a position where he will not know if it is the one that hit his opponent or not, and he will be at their mercy being first to act on the river. So the main principle at work here is that although it is true that he has the best hand here far more often than not, with stacks as deep as they are, he does not have positive equity blowing up the pot against two good players out of position when the turn card is such that he is going to have to play an expensive guessing game on the river. It's a classic case of an oft-misunderstood concept: equity in a hand being far more important than whether or not you currently (at any point in the hand other than on the river) have the best hand. I hope that makes sense.

aaachu, I think the stacks are too awkward for Orson to shove. Dan's raise is only 1550, and to shove his entire stack over that is very awkward. The risk-reward doesn't seem to be hold up, especially when you consider that Orson had not logged too many hands with me and can't be sure that I did not check a monster on the flop. I forgot now what the effective stacks are, but he would need both of us to fold a very very high percentage of the time to make the play +EV. Having said that, this was indeed a very unique situation in which it is in fact, extremely unlikely that either Dan or myself does have anything good, so it is an interesting idea. But (especially considering that Orson doesn't know for sure that I would not check a monster on the flop - or Dan wouldn't check a hand like 99 on the flop), I think shoving would be reckless. I like your outside-the-box thinking though!

Hi Niman, you said the raise was $1850 didn't you? So there was $3.2k + in the pot when action was back to Orson. I suggested the shove with the assumption that you were never calling once you made that turn $550 call, and you said this yourself, you would have raised QQ there if you had it rather than flatting on such active turn card OOP to Dan. So your best value holding is one pair at best + draws which could not call a 4bet from Orson. Though if he was really concerned he could raise to $6.5k-ish which practically put Dan all-in but can fold if you did end up shoving over the top. Again, I think the chances of you and Dan having a hand strong enough to shove is close to 0% based on your weak turn actions. The critical question here basically is whether a player as strong as yourself, and Orson knew you were a strong opponent, would trap with a set, or even two pair for that matter, on Q63-9fd in middle position after you bet, got called, and Orson check-raised. Have you ever taken or seen such funky lines on turn with monsters in your position? If so could you explain the reasoning behind it. I am a mid stakes player so it just never happens, so if I was put in Orson's spot I very well would've put that 4th raise in. Thanks by the way for taking your time in this relatively long discussion, really appreciate it.

This has to be the best format for teaching leveling! You are a guru Niman.