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9.3310
Niman reviews the first live video he ever made for BlueFire with an emphasis on how the games have changed from then to now and what he would do differently in today's game.
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Niman's How The Games Have Changed 600NL Review
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Re: Niman's How The Games Have Changed 600NL Review
The video was awkwardly funny, but i didn't get anything out of it. The concepts you talked about were much too basic.
On the positive side, you were spot on how the state of todays games should change your plays.
I hated the idea of 4bet/calling with AJ for about 110 BB starting in the hijack. The SB coldcaller (he coldcalled a Buttons 3 bet when they were quite deep) could easily call something like (TT,) JJ, QQ, AK, AQs which he will shove over your 4bet if the button folds, being 110 BB deep with you. Those hands have you crushed and the call will be hugely -ev. The break-even point for your call of the shove to be profitable is with a 4bet-size of about 40% of your stack. I doubt you will ever 4-bet this huge in this situation.
Nevertheless, AJ is one of the best 4bet-bluff hands and since the situation is good, 4bet/folding is the best play in my opinion.
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By the way, AJo does not have an equity of over 30% versus QQ-AA, AK and AQ, and ~30% versus JJ.
Against an optimistic stack-off range in this situation of 77-QQ, AK and AQs you have 35% equity with AJo. Assuming you would 4-bet to 180$, which i think is very large (i would 4-bet to 160$, do you think this is worse?), then you have a break-even call.
Against a more realistic stack-off range of the SB, especially considering this is ~2 years ago, of TT-QQ, 1 combo of AA (slowplay), 1/2 of AK (the other half he 4-bets himself) and AQs your equity is down to 30.7% and your call of the 5-bet shove, even after a hefty 180$ 4-bet, has an ev of -50$. The break-even point for a call of the shove for this situation is with a 4-bet size of 230$, which is 35.6% of your starting-stack.
The BU 5-bet range has to be even stronger, since the SB with whom he is deep with is still to act and could potentially have slowplayed a monster.
I am looking forward to your calculations and really hope that i am wrong, since that would bring up a leak of mine.
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Re: Niman's How The Games Have Changed 600NL Review
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Thank you very much for your answer. I did not considerate a bluff-shove hand and the fact that such a big 4-bet is necessary to prevent a profitable call with a bunch of hands.
I think balance and meta game is considered by only 4-bet-bluffing with some combos (or even all) of AJ and KQ and nothing else, and 4-bet/calling AQ instead.
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Re: Niman's How The Games Have Changed 600NL Review
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Re: Niman's How The Games Have Changed 600NL Review
GadirGadir, thanks for the feedback. Let me see if I can explain my reasoning in further detail. Your statements are in quotation marks.
"First of all if you pokerstove that spot you will find outyou do not have 35% but around 30-31% at most against any kind of reasonable stack off range" ... I think this is incorrect. Your equity is 35% using the (very reasonable) range that tompoker suggested. Note that he completely left off any possibility of a bluff shove from your opponent. Since there is obviously some non-negligible possibility of that, your equity becomes even greater.
"Secondly, advocating 4-bettting to minimum 180 with a 646 stack is just absurd, I know niman likes to have very big 4-bet sizes or also very big flop 3-bet sizes but there should be a reason nobody else does this at 3/6+ NL! Sure you will get flatted sometimes by not 4-bettting super big but thats not so bad and there are lots of hands that will still fold to the 4-bet." ... This is very wrong. If you use the logic that this is correct because 'nobody else is doing it,' to make your decisions, then you are really going to have a hard time getting ahead and beating everyone else. Whenever you do - or don't do - something in poker, it is of paramount importance to understand the reason why. Let me break down this particular situation for you. With regards to small four-betting oop, it USED to be a decent play to four-bet small for one very clear and specific reason. Most opponents responded to four-bets - regardless of size - by shoving or folding. Obviously, it goes without saying that if your opponent is going to shove or fold, then you should always make the smallest possible raise. However, as the game as evolved and players continue to game-theory optimize their play, the good players have incorporated calling of four bets (that are too small) into their game, especially in position. Considering that many players are three betting hands like 55, 87s, etc, four betting small gives them the absolute correct odds to call with those hands in position (as well as calling with big hands to balance). This of course, makes a hand like AJo a disaster to play oop after having four bet with still plenty of stack left behind. In this particular hand, you propose making it 150. That means that the button has to call only 90 into a pot that now has 276 - better than 3-1 in direct odds! And of course, the increased playability of his hand and best position puts him in a hugely +EV position with plenty of stack left behind. This is of course particularly true when you have a hand like AJo that is almost never going to play well after the flop. I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to understand WHY a play is good or bad - and not just go along with it because the majority are doing it. If you investigate the reasons behind the necessity of a larger four bet, you should understand that it is not only not "absurd" as you say, but it is a significant mistake to four bet smaller in this type of situation against a decent player that can call the four bet.
Finally, in your post, you are ignoring the very important consideration of balance. If you are facing a frequent three bettor - especially one who three bets you often in position - you need to combat that by increasing your four-betting frequency. However, if you increase your four-bet frequency, but do not correspondingly increase the frequency with which you call a five-bet shove, you will create an intrinsic imbalance in your play. In order to maintain your balance (and thus not be able to be incessantly five-bet), it becomes necessary for meta-game considerations to increase your range to stack-off range. And as such, you may have to give up a little bit in isolationist equity to fit the bigger picture in close spots such as this one. So in summary: (1) your equity is closer to 35% than 30-31%, but even if it were closer to the latter, it is necessary to increase your four-bet-calling range in order to increase your four-betting frequency. (2) the four bet should be to at least 180. try to avoid the mass mentality of four-betting small just because everyone is doing it and understand the specfics of the situation to determine appropriate sizing. (3) So ultimately, four-betting to call > four-betting to fold here. Having said that, just folding to the three-bet may well be the best decision.
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Re: Niman's How The Games Have Changed 600NL Review
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Re: Niman's How The Games Have Changed 600NL Review
Gadir, although the first part of your post is not entirely without merit, you have made a couple of mathematical mistakes that undermine your conclusions. I was going to point them out for you and also comment about some metagame stuff that you have missed, but I read the rest of your comment. Unfortunately, it's clear to me that your attitude precludes you from learning from an intellectual discussion about this clearly interesting (and important) subject matter.
I had explained - using logic and an application of the situation at hand - to try and explain why it is a bad play to four bet small (giving an opponent in position 3-1 in direct odds with 80% of his stack still left behind) with a hand like AJo out of position. I explained myself by analyzing the hand in question and explaining the specific parametrics of the situation at hand. Instead of responding with any discussion or refutation of the intellectual merits of my explanation, you give me a bunch of idiotic drivel.
"Go tell Giggy who 4-bets pretty small even though he gets a decent amount of 4-bets that he is terribly wrong. Even better, do you know that ansky advocates click it backs 4-bets in postion? Go tell him that he dont understand anything about poker. Go tell galfond who makes a lot of small flop 3-bets even on drawy boards that he has a huge leak and that he needs to 3-bet bigger on flops."
This nonsense from you really shows not only a lack of comprehension, but an inability to distinguish between the enormous difference between the situation at hand and the completely inapplicable 'examples' that you are trying to give. I explained that a hand like AJo plays very poorly when a four bet is called out of position with a playable stack still left behind. To that, you respond with a bunch of nonsense about Giggy, Ansky, and Galfond advocating smaller three bets IN SITUATIONS THAT ARE NOT EVEN VAGUELY SIMILAR TO THIS ONE.
If you disagreed with my logic, a reasonable approach would have been to point out where you think it is flawed (much like tompoker has done in several of his posts in my last few videos). That would lead to an educational and interesting discussion. Instead, your stupid nonsense about Ansky clicking back four bets in position not only provides absolutely no value, it also makes you look like a first class moron. For the record, I guarantee you that any of those three players that you mention would absolutely agree with me that four betting small with AJo OUT OF POSITION in this situation would be a mistake.
As if that was not enough, you then sign off your post with incomprehensible nonsense, "humbly advising" me not to open 85s and 63s. To that, I can say this: first of all, I do just fine combating aggressive three bettors, thank you very much. Second, what does that have to do with the discussion points that I was analyzing with regards to the hand in question?
Like you, I will leave you with some parting advice. If you do not understand or disagree with certain elements of the game of poker, it would behoove you to try and understand WHY a play is good or bad, what is the logical reason that you should bet or not bet, bet a certain amount, etc. If you try and support your conviction by mimicking other players without understanding the core of the issue, you run the risk of completely misapplying the concept and making errors that you will never fix. For instance, your little rant about other players and their small raises is completely and totally inapplicable to the situation at hand. I actually don't disagree with the small raises that they make in the situations that they make them. I don't necessarily do the same thing, but I do not disagree with the logic behind those plays as they fit in the framework of their overall approach. However, you clearly do not understand the differences in the situations. That by itself is not a huge problem, but your attitude and approach - your unwillingness to learn and your inclination to argue using irrelevant comparisions instead of logic - makes it such that you are going to have a difficult time improving in the areas that you might be deficient.
If you want to continue to discuss this hand or anything else - with an intellectual exchange discussing the matter at hand - I will be more than happy to participate. Regardless of who is right, a discussion based on intellect and logic will always benefit all the parties involved. But as long as your response is based on baseless comparisons and personal attacks, I'm not going to waste my time with you. I just hope you learn to approach poker by trying to understand the root of the issues rather than just mimicking other pros without understanding the reasonsins behind their actions.
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tompoker, I agree with this. If it's enough of an issue for you, please email support. I think this has been a long-standing problem (albeit a minor one), and I would be among those that would be happy to see it fixed.
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Thanks knowlestoo! I'm glad you enjoyed it! :)
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fiveplusfive, could you please give me the details of the hand? If you give me the specifics of the hand, I'll be able to provide more meaningful analysis. Thanks!
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