Jason at 100PLO 6max

At the end, when you get to the river with T976 on the Q95Q8 board, you say value betting is probably a bit thin. However, considering the way villain had been playing and the fact most people (and specially spewy monkeys) fight pretty hard for 3-bet pots IP, don't you think he would be betting JTxx on the flop almost always? For that reason I think on the river you can be pretty confident on having the best hand and maybe getting called by KKxx, a queen or 98xx. Wouldn't you agree?

Hey guys. Thanks for the questions! I have to rewatch the spots on the vid in order to answer properly. I will do that sometime in the next day or so and get back to you. Just wanted to let you know that I plan to do it.

iFinnaRobYouu, Thanks for the question. I think your thought process there is interesting and a small bet is certainly worth considering. In fact, if I bet, it would be small with my entire betting range. I still don't think I like it. If we are only getting called by worse (except for the rare 7x) we really are just burning the $9 or whatever we put in when we are behind. This is what I was talking about when I said it makes the hand easier to play. I completely believe that it will make the hand easier to play, but I am not convinced that that justifies burning the $9 when we are behind. I just don't think we gain enough value to overcome that. Let's look at a few quick scenarios: 1. He c/r's the flop w air often enough that he will bluff rivers pretty frequently. If this is the case, we are better off checking back and just calling the river. We get value from bluffs that he would've folded on the turn. 2. He is basically never bluffing on the river. We check back and win the same vs him the times he has a weaker hand. He would've folded that on the turn anyway, so there is no gain. If he bets the river we can comfortably fold and we save the $9 we would've bet on the turn. Obviously this is a game of incomplete information and we can't know which of the two scenarios is true. Because of that, there has to be some merit in making the information bet. The bet, though, is still inherently -EV as a one-street vacuum bet. I am not convinced that my river making decisions will be more -EV overall than the turn bet would be. There is some value to seeing a showdown more often, but I doubt that is worth all that much in a short session. I could be wrong on this. In fact, I am not even convinced that my river fold was correct. I think it is really close. Great question and it is definitely something to think about.