Bubble Factors

Really interesting. I'm looking forward to watch part 2!

Yeah Jimbo, that is an area that is often screwed up by most players on the bubble, especially the 9, 18, and 45 mans, where the average bubble factor is generally higher. There are many times where you need to be folding AK because you do not have enough guaranteed equity to justify the call given the ICM considerations. This usually occurs when everyone has 10bb+ stacks, or as you said, 2 big stacks doing battle. Even if someone told you they were shoving 72o, you may still need to fold AK on the bubble depending on the stack distribution. However, I would not say that ICM is flawed. ICM is what it is. Based upon the payouts and number of players left, each chip has a $ value which can be used to determine your total equity in the tournament. Therefore, you need to understand the value of your stack compared to the other stacks, and how much guaranteed equity you need in a given scenario (ie. calling an all in), to compensate for the ICM tax. I learned this stuff, like when I need to fold AK on the bubble, just by playing a ton and constantly throwing these common, yet tough, scenarios into calculators like SNG Wiz. That's really the best way. For anyone reading this, go ahead and put in some sample bubble scenarios, where everyone has equal stacks and you hold AK vs another playing shoving. Start messing around with the shoving ranges, differing stacks, and different SNG formats, to understand how you need to adjust your ranges.