Alan's Amateur to Pro (9)

joinmystack: I don't think getting in KK preflop will be good given a 1.1% 4B and non-steal positions. But folding feels so dirty. In these spots I'll look for any excuse to get it in preflop. Say the opponent had a 2.0+ 4B or we were in steal positions, I'd feel QQ was in his range and happily stack off. Neither are the case, so it's either fold or call. It's close. Because folding feels so dirty I look for excuses to make the math work for a call (which you can see below). I think the math works, but all your points are valid. Do you fold here? Based up on the limited information we have (player tendencies and positions) I feel like QQ is unlikely to be in his get it in range w/ high enough frequency to justify getting it in preflop. Given it's a back raise situation and the opponents very low 4B frequency I feel his bluffing frequency is low (certainly not high enough to give us the fold equity to get it in vs a range heavily weighed toward AA). Now if we call we're getting 5:1 in implied odds. Given the occasional bluff and the his QQ and worse value cutting frequency I think we can get the math to work. But then again, w/ some frequency he will such out on us w/ a worse hand. Just out of curiosity I looked though my database and my students databases (2 million hands) and couldn't find a single instance of someone stacking of for 200BB w/ less than KK at 200NL and lower. I do have a few at 400. I could find plenty of examples for 150BB. In the end this is a rare situation. None of the options shine above the others and our interpretation of of opponents range his makes all the difference. I kind of dismissed folding at the time, mostly because it feels so dirty, but you make good points and I think I should give it more consideration.

loved it... I really like how you explain what your opponents would likely think and your mathamatical explanations.