Okey to push here? Sunday Million 15.april » SNG / MTT Discussion

wudupmyninja Poker Newbie
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Okey to push here? Sunday Million 15.april

AndyCarlson Bluefire Pro Poker Apprentice
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Re: Re: Okey to push here? Sunday Million 15.april

Jimbozgrapes wrote:

Okay, so a few things to note here. The pot is 1470 i believe. This makes the effective blinds 1,000/500. Now personally I don't like going straight with effective stack for pushing ranges, because we actually aren't as commited to the pot if we min raise with a 15bb stack when someone pushes over us. For example, we have 9,000, the blinds are 300/600/60 like in your hand, and we raise to 1200, making the pot 2670, and we have 7800 behind. someone jams over us adding effectivly 7800 more to the pot (10,400, and we need to put in 7800 to call), we are only getting about 1.5-1 odds to make the call atc when we raise, as opposed to the 2-1 odds you would normally need to make an atc call in this situation. Effective stack is a useful tool, but you don't want to just straight go with effective stack for pushing ranges, as it is not always your best option.

Now with that being said, we have probably the most awkward stack size to be playing with in a tournament. We need to accumulate chips, but we are not in desperation mode yet. The blinds can increase, and we will still have the option to push for blind steals comfortably. Also wtith this stack we have little to no post flop playability. Now we look at our options, and give the pros and cons of each.

Min-Raising: We need to accumulate chips, and blind stealing is almost always going to be the most reliable way to do that, min raising from early position will probably get the same respect as a push, so we can almost certainly comfortably fold to an over-shove, as the villians will very likely not be shoving with anything worse than A/10, making us a flip or dominated 99% of the time in this scenario. The problem however is when we get flatted, we are basically fucked on any flop we dont hit, and this hand will be near impossible to play properly or profitably in most situations given our stack size out of position.

3 or 4x raising: Some people do this and call off a shove, as it sometimes provides more fold equity, and really disuades being flated by idiots. The problem is that you do commit yourself to the pot, and will have to go with your hand most times when called given any glimps of a favourable flop, or if shoved over. This move however is pretty loose, and I personally almost never do it, however there are situations with a shorter stack where this is something you should be doing depending on position and players behind you.

Shoving: Provides (in theory) the highest fold equity possible. With your stats if I saw you shove utg with that stack size, I would think you were A/Q 8/8+. I would almost never call you with something worse then A/Q. However, I am not the poker population, and there are certainly lots of people that think A/J is a top 5% hand (or at least act like it is). Also the easiest way to play the hand, but again this is something that you shouldn't be concidering unless all options are equal (which i think they aren't).

Folding: We will always be able to find plenty of shove spots. Can we find better ones often enough then what we currently have is always the question you need to be asking yourself. So the pro is that you live to fight another day, and the con is that you will need to wait for another spot. Will you have a likely chance of getting a better spot? This is for you to decide, and one of the most important decissions in tournaments.

 

For me personally, this is a situation where I would choose to fold, although if I had to rank the options in order in this situation it would be 1.) fold, 2.) min-raise fold 3.) shove 4.) raise 4x call off.

I think your flaw in logic here with the shove IMO was that you saw your 15bb stack as a 10bb stack. Blinds raising soon is always something to concider, but in this situation it is the last thing on my mind. Risking 15bbs for 2.3 going through 7 people with a medium strength hand is not something that you want to be doing, even with the blinds increasing. Also, remember that effective stack size DOES NOT 100% replace actual stack size with antes. The shove/call off math is different, and also the percieved shove strength is higher if you lose your min-raise going from 15 to 13 bbs, as opposed to 10 to 8bbs actual stack (most other people don't take into account the effective stack of the shover anyways when they are concidering their call ranges, so its fine to lose some bbs when you have 15-20, although you really want to avoid it).

 

I hope this helps, and if you have any questions please respond.