-
c0wbait
Poker Newbie
32 Posts100 PLO big pot decisions
215 big blinds deep... villain was super tilted earlier but seemed to calm down as of lately but still made a few aggro 3 barrels with air and some crazy stuff.� This is standard to me but I also haven't played much lately since all the sites left to play on for u.s. players aren't fantastic.� Villain acted like I was a moron for getting it in here.
Hand#2762013321000539 - Los Angeles (2-Max) 13321 -- $0.50/$1 PL Omaha -- 2011/10/28 - 17:15:28
Seat 3: Villain ($215 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero ($292.34 in chips) DEALER
Hero: posts small blind $0.50
Villain: posts big blind $1
Dealt to Hero [2h,As,Ah,Qh]
Hero: raises to $3
Villain: raises to $9
Hero: raises to $27
Villain: calls $18
*** FLOP *** [6h,7c,Kh]
Villain: checks
Hero: bets $38
Villain: raises to $168
Hero: is all in $227.34
Villain: is all in $20
Hero: returns uncalled bet $77.34 -
tiny_molester
Poker Newbie
23 PostsRe: 100 PLO big pot decisions
Well your not a fool for getting it in, however your not fist pumping either. I think too many people overestimate the "standardness" of such a spot in a 4b pot, one thing to understand is adjustments that arise from stack sizes:
Starting with 100bb this hand is absolute standard get in (since spr~1.35) and you only need around 35% equity to break even. Clearly you have that against a reasonable range in 4b pot when its 100bb.
However starting with 215bb effective, we create a spr ~3.5 spot which would require us 44% to break even (not including rake here, which is attrocious at plo100). I'm assuming villain is loose aggro and 3betting around 20%. Now take a 20% range and intersect it with any reasonable stacking of range on flop and run the analysis in Propokertools and you will see you barely have 38% (20%&(KK**, 789*, 458*, KBhB*h, 89Th*, K7**, K6**, 66**, 77**) was the range that i stoved against).
Once you bet 38/54 this creates a different equity spot once he jams, now you need about 35% equity to break even, and you just have that so it becomes a almost ev neutral play to bet/call the flop once you factor into rake. It seems the real question should you be cbetting here this deep?
-
ZenPoker
Poker Newbie
30 PostsRe: Re: 100 PLO big pot decisions
tiny_molester wrote:
20%&(KK**, 789*, 458*, KBhB*h, 89Th*, K7**, K6**, 66**, 77**
There are a lot of problems with using PPT to calculate equity like this, the "20%" is just nowhere near an accurate range. For example, this range has 3x more 66,77 combos than wraps.
Anyway, a 3.5 SPR isn't really that deep and villain is kinda crazy, so his range is wider than that.
-
tiny_molester
Poker Newbie
23 PostsRe: 100 PLO big pot decisions
Using the PPT range weighting isn't 100% accurate but it is more then good enough for the ocnfines of calculating the ev. I don't quite understand how you got the 3x more 66, 77 combos over wraps...
If you believe his range to be wider, can you provide a range that we can stove?
-
ZenPoker
Poker Newbie
30 PostsRe: 100 PLO big pot decisions
No, I can't. That's my point, the software just doesn't do it yet. Just because it's the best we've got at the moment doesn't mean it's accurate.
I didn't take into account dead cards with the 3x comment, so that was wrong. But you still have 400+ combos of (66, 77) & 20% and only 300+ combos of (458, 89Th) & 20%.
That includes hands like AK66ss, 6653ds and QT77ds that probably don't play like that preflop, so you need to discount some of the sets.
458 & 20% leaves out all the 8754ss type hands out of his pf range, you should probably include at least some of those.
89Th & 20% leaves out Td9h8h and plain T98r, which is weird if he has 854r.
KBhB*h leaves out Kc Qh Jh 4c because the dangler is not a heart, so you need more flush draws in there too.
So even if you fix those with T98* and (K & *h*h) - that's Slice syntax - you still have the problem that "20%" just isn't even close to a realistic range for any living player. Building a proper pf range is a very difficult task.
The point is, when you run these calculations with long ranges, you don't get accurate results. If you believe the results you see, you make the wrong conclusions. I think you did this in your post by concluding it's close to neutral EV to call once we bet. I think it's not close, but can't really prove it with the tools that are available.
(PPT etc are great tools for a lot of other situations and I'm glad they exist. I just think people often use them incorrectly.)
-
c0wbait
Poker Newbie
32 PostsRe: 100 PLO big pot decisions
In case you guys were curious... he ended up having KK89 no suit and i bricked out.
-
c0wbait
Poker Newbie
32 PostsRe: 100 PLO big pot decisions
and thanks for the feedback.
-
pelikaan
Poker Newbie
5 PostsRe: 100 PLO big pot decisions
agree with the thought that 3.5 spr isn't that much. we have v close to top of our range and should protect given the 76 on the flop, so it's a b/c.
as ZenPoker said, the frequency of some of those hands in the stove are not likely given the preflop action at 200bbs, like 66, 77, 458, K6, and K7.
-
durzaaaa
Poker Newbie
22 PostsRe: 100 PLO big pot decisions
has no one taken into account that sometimes villain will fold, even if it is in the vicinity of less than 5%?
and i mean if we are 4 betting aces and flopping a flush draw and considering folding. what flop are we hoping for?
-
c0wbait
Poker Newbie
32 PostsRe: Re: 100 PLO big pot decisions
durzaaaa wrote:
has no one taken into account that sometimes villain will fold, even if it is in the vicinity of less than 5%?
and i mean if we are 4 betting aces and flopping a flush draw and considering folding. what flop are we hoping for?
basically my thoughts in a nutshell in this hand
100 PLO big pot decisions » Small Stakes Plo Discussion
982 Views
982 Views