doncamatic Poker Newbie
(hand on weaktight cause I couldnt figure out how to hide results in here)
So I'm very new to PLO and this is something I haven't had to deal with yet. I just sat down at the table so had no reads on anyone. I assumed the cold 4b is some sort of AAxx hand so the Ace in my hand is bad but I still flop well enough of the time to actually call the 4bet. Is that thinking right?
My plan for the flop was to fold if I flop nothing or an Ace and call if I hit any other piece of it. I think that flop is one of the better ones for me - Pair + a few backdoors = enough equity vs AAxx?
ZenPoker Poker Newbie
The flop is a call, yes.
But you should just fold preflop, I don't think you're getting odds with that hand against AA.
Even if it was double suited and you'd just about get the right odds in theory, you should still fold since calculating your equity for calling a 4bet assumes you won't make any mistakes vs AA**, and that you've correctly estimated his range to be AA**. Since you're new to PLO, you'll make some incorrect folds and calls on some flops, so it's much better to just fold the close situations pf until you know your flop equity very well.
pelikaan Poker Newbie
preflop is bad. villain is only 80 deep and in position, which increases his possible AA** combos, and given the action AA** is nearly always his hand, against which you have 33% with half a psb postflop
postflop you need 25% to break even and have at least 30 so call
tiny_molester Poker Newbie
These type of spots need to be analysed rigoursly with mathematics to dertermine whether or not preflop was bad. To go about solving these preflop spots, we can use the following model:
Villain has AAxx, and will jam every flop.
All we need to figure out is giving the stack setup, can we flop the required equity often enough to make flatting 4b better then folding pf.
Ev(fold to 4b)= 0
The ev is calculated from the moment we are 4b, not from the moment we decide to 3b
Using Propokertools, we can look at the equity distribution of AhJhThQd vs AA** on flop, to get an idea of the frequency of flopping required equity. In this particular case, we have 3bet to 12bb and villain 4bet to 41bb. It is 29bb more to call to play for a pot of 87bb on flop with a SPR of about .5 since villain only has only 42.5bb to play for on flop. This means for us to stack of post we need 25% equity share of the flop.
Looking at the HvH graph of AhJhThQd vs AA** we see that we flop greater then 25% on the top 55% of flops. Averaging this equity out by intergrating under the curve, we get an average equity of 51% vs AA** on the top 55% of flops. Pluggin all this into the EV calculation yields:
Ev(flat 4b) = .45(-29bb)+.55[ .51(+100.5bb)-.49(71.5bb) ]
So Ev(fold to 4b) = 0 > -4bb = Ev(flat 4b)
doncamatic Poker Newbie
Thanks so much everyone, especially the_molester. The mathematics is very helpful as I can see exactly why flatting is bad.