2000NL, facing tricky overbet-bluff on river » High Stakes No Limit Discussion

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messixx wrote:

Hi,

This was a fairly interesting hand against a typical laggy type of reg at FT. At that particular time of the hand, I had no reads on that player - he just sat down at the table, but I recognized his name.

5 Handed, 10-20NL

UTG, 4551$
Villain on CO, 2000$
BU, 2484$
SB, 2424$
Hero in BB, 4040$

UTG fold, CO raises to 60$, BU folds, SB folds, BB calls with KJ

Flop ---- 9K4, pot 130$

Hero checks, Villain bets 80$, Hero calls

Turn --- J, pot 290$

Hero checks, Villain bets 240$, Hero calls

River - 3, pot 770$

Hero checks, Villain tanks, bets 950$, Hero calls

Villain mucks 108
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I decided not to 3bet KJs there, as he was just sitting down at the table, I had no read on him and would hate to get 4bet off a hand with as much value as KJs, so I just called. When the flop came, I decided to take a passive line in this hand, perhaps picking up bluffs and not putting myself into tricky spots vs. the unknown. On the Turn, I hate my play to just flat there, as there a so many rivers that could allow him to bluff me off my hand and I also miss out value vs AA and AK if a 4 card straight or FD hits the river. So i basically should raise 100% of the time there, or?
When he tanked on the river and then overbet, it really made me feel sick. I obviously dont beat any of his value hands anymore as AK, AA would never bet like this for value, so basically he has a set, Q10 or a busted FD. I ruled out Ks and Js as I had blockers and I doubted he would actually bet sets like this on turn and river. I decided to call because the only hand he was repping was Q10 that was trying to look like a failed flush draw vs a large bluffing range of busted flush draws.

My initial thought right after the hand was that it was a really good bluff on his part, but after thinking through that hand for a long time, I actually thought it was a poor play, not the attempt, but his bet sizing. I think with the overbet, he accomplishes no more then he would accomplish with a regular value bet around the 520$ish range. He is basically trying to fold out my KQ, K10 and lower FDs with a pair. He would probably always expect me to raise Ahigh FDs and he cant expect me to fold any sets or 2 pairs on this board.

So in the end, I feel like it was a fairly easy call, but it appeared a lot tougher to me during the hand and his bluff sizing was wrong in my opinion.

I would really appreciate thoughts ont his hand and how you think about my conclusions, agree or not?

Thanks in advance

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I think that just calling preflop as you did is far superior to 3-betting in this spot.  Your hand takes a flop very well and plays well with a larger stack to pot ratio.  Flop play is standard of course.  I agree with your own critique about just flatting the turn.  You are overwhelmingly likely to have the best hand - but so much of the deck ruins your hand or at least your ability to make money off of it on the turn.  Effective stacks are only 100bb deep, so you can comfortably raise the turn and play for stacks if he goes back over you.  I think that just calling the turn is a pretty significant mistake given the board.

As played, I think check calling the river is OK (as you can pick off a lot of busted draws here).  I too would feel a little sick at the size of that river bet, as it turns your hand into just a bluff catcher.  However, I do think that he is bluffing often enough that you can make the call barring a read.

So basically I like your play throughout the hand except the turn.

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messixx wrote:

My initial thought right after the hand was that it was a really good bluff on his part, but after thinking through that hand for a long time, I actually thought it was a poor play, not the attempt, but his bet sizing. I think with the overbet, he accomplishes no more then he would accomplish with a regular value bet around the 520$ish range. He is basically trying to fold out my KQ, K10 and lower FDs with a pair. He would probably always expect me to raise Ahigh FDs and he cant expect me to fold any sets or 2 pairs on this board.

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I disagree. Since your range mostly consists of medium strong hands and all draws miss Villain should be betting pretty big both strong hands and bluffs. Imo his betsize is even too small and he should make it like 1100$.

I would never fold this river. When I read the hand I was thinking if a river c/r would be good (don't think it is), but a fold was not an option. It's a pretty weird bet sizing from villain without him having any reads on you, but the reason, of course, is that you give more action on earlier streets with good hands so he wants to widen his bluffing range on river by betting bigger. I think it could be a good play by him if he had some better reads on you, but versus an unknown I think I'd rather stick with normal sized bets here.